Investment Blogs

May 20, 2012

Pay off credit cards first, or pay off student loan first?

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: — mbhunter @ 7:01 am

One of my Yakezie friends Fiscal Phoenix got some advice from a financial planner about paying off debt.  The choice was between paying down student loans and paying down credit cards.  The credit cards had a lower average balance and a higher average interest rate than the student loans.  Given these pieces of information, it seems like it would make more sense to pay down the credit cards first rather than the student loans.  Right?

Her financial planner gave her the opposite advice: pay down the student loans, which had a higher balance and a lower interest rate.  The planner’s reasoning was that credit card debt can be discharged in a bankruptcy, while student loan debt cannot.

Student loans:  A great deal for everyone except the student

Who in their right mind would loan someone tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars at low interest rates for someone to advance their education?  Banks do it with mortgages and car loans because there is collateral:  they can take your house / car back if you don’t pay.  Not so with an education.  The diploma is worthless to them.

They write student loans because some kinds are guaranteed by the government.  Then, why would the government do this?  Well, the bankruptcy rules (Section 523(a)(8)) make many student loans non-dischargeable in bankruptcy unless undue hardship can be demonstrated.  This means that the student loans stick around longer than other debts, even through they’ve bankruptcy.

It’s a virtuous circle for lenders and educational institutions:  lenders can lend with little fear of getting stiffed, educational institutions can ratchet fees several percent each year regardless of inflation, and the government backs it all.  It’s bad for students:  they’re paying (and borrowing) more and more for degrees that are worth less and less, and the student loan burden sucks the life out of their finances for years.

Why plan to fail?

Even with the risk of having the student loans stick around bankruptcy, paying down the credit cards first is better for a number of reasons:

  • Paying down the lower-balance debts first gives a quicker victory.  The payment is gone after the debt is paid off, and the money is freed up to attack the other debts.
  • Paying down the higher-interest-rate debts first saves interest.  The higher the interest rate, the more money saved by paying the balance off faster.
  • The credit card minimum payment decreases, even with a remaining balance.  Student loans are installment loans — there’s a constant minimum payment throughout the life of the loan.  Paying down this kind of loan doesn’t reduce the monthly payment; it only reduces how long you have to make those minimum monthly payments. Credit card minimum payments, however, are usually some low minimum amount, unless the balance exceeds a certain amount, at which it become a percentage of the balance due.  So if the minimum credit card payment is, say, 4% of the balance due, then paying down a $10,000 balance to $8,000 reduces the minimum payment from $400 to $320.  This gives some extra breathing room in case something bad happens.

In short, I’d pay down the credit cards first in this case. :)

 

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May 18, 2012

Closing Numbers – 5/18/12

Filed under: Uncategorized — syndic @ 8:19 pm

Down, down, down....for the last 12 out of 13 days the DOW has been down. Today was no exception, with the DOW down 73 to 12,369. Is 12,200 in the cards? That is the 200 DMA. In my opinion we will see it, but probably not Monday. I am basing that on the bond market. The last time the stock market was down and the bond market was flat or down, the stock market rallied the next day.

The bond market was flat today, as the 10 year yield stayed at 1.70%.

The other numbers were: The NASDAQ down 35 to 2,779 and the S&P was down 10 to 1,295. In case you are wondering, the 200 DMA on the NASDAQ is 2,742.

As for me, my hedge expired worthless today, and I am happy about it. I should be able to lock in next week with a great rate and a nice credit back to me.

Futures

Filed under: Uncategorized — syndic @ 11:16 am

Stock futures are positive this morning.

May 17, 2012

Closing Numbers – 5/17/12

Filed under: Uncategorized — syndic @ 8:10 pm

Brutal day on Wall Street, as stocks got clobbered. The big drop took both the DOW and NASDAQ into oversold territory. The RSI on the DOW is now under 27, and the RSI on the NASDAQ is 24. Both indexes closed around their lows for the day, as losses accelerated in the final hour.

Looking at the numbers, the DOW closed down 156 to 12,442, the NASDAQ closed down 60 to 2,814, and the S&P closed down 20 to 1,304.

The reason given for the drop was Greece, as their debt was downgraded. While I agree this was part of the reason, the other part was poor technicals. I have been bearish for a couple of weeks now for that reason.

That being said, the markets are now in oversold territory, and the DOW has been down 11 out of 12 days now. So they are due for a rebound soon.

The bond market had a great day, as the 10 year yield fell to 1.70% from 1.76%.

Straight down

Filed under: Uncategorized — syndic @ 12:17 pm
The markets have been in down trend for last 2 weeks. Typically down moves tend to be punctuated by counter trend rallies. So far we have not seen those.





Futures

Filed under: Uncategorized — syndic @ 11:14 am

Stock Futures are flat this morning.

The Difficult Choice

The times aren’t easy for market timers.  The market has declined around 6% since the April 2 peak of 1419.04 and the anxiety level is rising.  The question of every market  timers lips are: “Should we sell into this decline … Continue reading

May 16, 2012

Closing Numbers – 5/16/12

Filed under: Uncategorized — syndic @ 8:10 pm

Stocks were down again today, making it 10 out of 11 down days for the DOW. It was down 33 to 12,599, while the NASDAQ was down 20 to 2,874, and the S&P was down 6 to 1,325.

The RSI on the DOW is now 31, and the RSI on the NASDAQ is 30. 30 or lower is considered oversold, therefore we should be close to a decent turn around here. Once the rebound starts in earnest, I would look for moves up to the 20 day EMA's for both indexes (12,919 for the DOW and 2,966 for the NASDAQ).

The bond market had another decent day today, with the 10 year yield falling to 1.76% from 1.78%.

Still Looking For Upside

Filed under: Uncategorized — syndic @ 3:03 pm
The market is getting a bounce in early trading, but it still needs to pick up some steam as the day wears on to have a real impact.  We did get some positive economic reports today which seem to be helping. 

Both Asian and European markets were both down overnight, but our market seems to be shrugging it off.  The euro is getting a small bounce today, which isn't surprising given the 10-day tear the dollar has been on.  Look at the chart of UUP to see what I'm talking about.

The relative weakness in the dollar today isn't helping commodities much.  Gold prices are still struggling to hang on to the $1550 level, and oil prices have dipped below $94 on demand concerns due to slowing economic growth.

On the earnings front, a handful of retail stocks have reported earnings with mixed reactions.  Target (TGT) beat estimates and its stock is higher, but ANF, JCP, and SPLS are all lower after reporting.

In economic news, industrial production for April grew by 1.1%, which is higher than expected.  And capacity utilization was slightly above expectations at 79.2%.  Also, housing starts increased in April to a rate of 717,000 units from 699,000 the prior month.

Later today we get the minutes from the last FOMC meeting.  I don't expect any surprises here.  Probably just more of the same debate over how much additional stimulus is needed vs. when the Fed should start removing said stimulus. 

The 10-year yield is up a touch to 1.80%.  And the VIX is down -3% to 21.25.

Trading comment: Yesterday's late action was disappointing.  That's not what you want to see.  Markets that open strong and close weak are the definition of a market that is not ready to rally.  Let's see if today can change that pattern.  We opened higher today and need to build on the gains into the close.  The S&P 500 needs to get above yesterday's high of 1445 just to change the near-term trend.  And above 1350 gives the market a shot at its overhead 50-day near 1384.  As for the Nasdaq, the 2900 level has held very well.  One stock that stands out today is Google (GOOG) which is retaking its 50-day average today on solid volume.  GOOG is regaining some respect after the Facebook IPO documents highlight the potential for mobile advertising and the fact that FB will come public at a price-to-sales multiple far higher than GOOG.

KAM Advisors has long positions in GOOG

Futures

Filed under: Uncategorized — syndic @ 11:15 am

Futures are flat this morning.

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